Society's to Blame

As oil climbs above $140/barrel, and the mainstream media tentatively starts to stick its toe in the idea that peak oil might be more than a "theory", we'll start to notice that society as a whole is acting, well, a lot like we act in our personal lives.






Evolution - just a theory.









For instance, if our pointy-haired boss decides to give away the store to a rich and powerful customer, leaving nothing for our future job security, do we raise a stink and go over his or her head to get the rascal thrown out?







No, really, I have an open door policy. Just put the bag over your head and come in.







No, we just keep our eyes on the floor and hope the company doesn't go out of business till we retire, leaving the problem for future employees. Thus it is with the Security and Prosperity Partnership, which threatens not only to leave Canadians without the energy they need to live, but could put Canada on the next-to-invade list (after Iran) if we say no to the fixed percentages of our oil and gas that we have to export under the terms of NAFTA.





Let's hope they run out of gas before they reach the border!





And how about that new car? Sure, gas is going over $4 a gallon in the US, and $5 a gallon in Canada, but hell, we've worked hard - don't we deserve to get that shiny beauty we've been dreaming of for years?







It gives me a great view of on-coming traffic...in Botswana!







So it is with the shiny goodies that our cities, provinces, states and countries have their eyes on. Here in Vancouver, we're expanding our airport, even when the airlines are cutting flights, jet fuel costs are (ahem) skyrocketing, and the number of major North American airports is about to drop from 330 to 30 or 40 in the next two decades. But honey, it's got a sunroof, and Seattle is getting a nice new runway - don't you want to impress the neighbors?

We made ours nice and wide for the new FatPlane 3000!

And how about losing that last 10 pounds? OK, the treadmill was probably a waste of money, but this is definitely the year I'm going to start going to the gym. Just as soon as I fix the rain gutters, and plant that veggie garden. And I've always wanted to learn to read Egyptian heiroglyphics. I can definitely get all that done.






Oh, also, note to self, create Life.








For society, the favorite never-to-be-finished project (besides Iraq) has to be the freeway. Our favorite here in West Igloo is the Gateway project, a massive freeway-bridge combo planned when gasoline prices were about half of what they are right now. Sure, costs will go out of control, as the cement, steel and energy to build it spirals in cost. Sure, the number of cars on the road will plummet long before its finished. Sure, it uses up billions of tax dollars and puts nothing in place for the future we're actually going to have. Sure, it'll probably never be finished, leaving us with our own bridge to Nowhere. But we can't stop now - we've got contracts. You want us to get sued? Best to just keep on doing what we're doing.







With some good signage, nobody'll notice.






Because, really, there is no "society" -- there's just us. Politicians are obviously using the same brains (or lack of them) that we are. We don't really want to deal with all the bad stuff we know is going to happen, and neither do the world's governments. Everybody knows that all change is bad, and worse than that, changing actually requires us to change. You don't hear Obama bringing that up. The only kind of change we really want is a change back - back to before email overload, back to cheap gas and lots of legroom in Economy, back to that sweet spot in between Vietnam and Iraq 1 when everything seemed to be going OK and you could get rich without instantaneous live news feed of every poor suffering shmo in Wherever-The-Frig to make you feel guilty about it.








God, life was good.











Well, a change back is coming. A big ol' boomerang called Overshoot is about to give us a ride down the biggest one-hill rollercoaster in the history of civilization. And if we act fast, it's possible that we'll end up with sunshine, fresh air, clean food, free time and more friends than we can shake a potlatch at. A big new world is in a box on our doorstep, but it's going to be tougher to put together than that treadmill. Start reading the instructions.

Dispatch from the Frontier

In their book "Transport Revolutions", Perl & Gilbert figure that the number of airports in America with scheduled flights (330) will dwindle to 30 or 40 by 2025, as the oil supply peaks and we look back fondly on oil at $200/barrel.

In the meantime, special summer air fare deals still combine with humongous fuel surcharges, as we press ahead into Topsy-Turvy World where everything changes while everything stays the same (Sacre Bleu!).

This airline really sucks.









So we pay the high-low prices, buy the questionable carbon offsets, and blast off, hoping to squeeze in one more adventure before we have to hunker down and spend the rest of our lives hoeing the backyard veggies and taking carriage rides over to the barn-raising. Escape isn't what it used to be.

But if you're still determined to fly and feel good about it, try flying by the pound!

Dispatch from the Frontier

Paul Krugman of the NY Times had recently seemed to be showing signs of having a clue about peak oil, but in today's column, he argues that we won’t see a repeat of 1970’s stagflation, even though everyone has suddenly discovered that the Fed was doing the wrong thing for the future (if there’s a right thing the Fed could do) by cutting interest rates as oil was about to drive the price of Everything through the roof.










No more health insurance, but colonoscopies are free!









A quote from Krugman's article:

But where are the unions demanding 11-percent-a-year wage increases? (Where are the unions, period?) Consumers are worried about inflation, but you have to search far and wide to find workers demanding compensation in the form of higher wages, let alone employers willing to accept those demands. In fact, wage growth actually seems to be slowing, thanks to the weakness of the job market.

And since there isn’t a wage-price spiral, we don’t need higher interest rates to get inflation under control. When the surge in commodity prices levels off — and it will; the laws of supply and demand haven’t been repealed — inflation will subside on its own.

So Reagan breaks the backs of the unions, and Bush breaks the spirit of the consumer, making sure that no-one would have the power or will to demand compensation when it finally came time for the super-rich to take the rest of their money. Even the Elite Formerly Known as Wealthy are selling the silver and waiting on their rebate checks with the rest of the hoi polloi.







On the bright side, I get to keep my barrel!













Is it too much to theorize that the Bush clan made a pre-election deal with the Saudi branch of the family to crash the US economy, so that its assets could be sold off at fire-sale prices at the end of Term 2? Will Bush be retiring to Riyadh, rather than Crawford or his 99,000 acre spread in Paraguay, to watch the decline of the Ghawar field, and the end of America along with it?

Well, I'm all right, Jack. I've got my pot.

Dispatch from the Frontier

Some proof that there is algebra in real life: this is what is called an "inverse proportion".







Headed for a cliff? If life gives you lemmings, make lemmingade.









Problem #1: Based on the above chart, as oil supply growth approaches zero, oil price approaches...

a) ...infinity
b) ...more than I have (Prince Al Waleed - you can skip this one)
c) ...Eliot Spitzer's tip for a good hooker

Problem #2: And when the oil supply starts to decrease?

Dispatch from the Frontier

The news: High oil prices are about to undo all globalization since the 1970's.

Surprise! Turns out the global economy depended on cheap oil. We're shocked, shocked.






Also: scientists discover this is not actual size of earth.








Now we're about to see the split between wealthy China and wealthy oil exporters -- seems any resemblance was purely coincidental. China will have to look for a new growth industry besides exports. Suggestion: buy North America before the bottom drops out of those trillion US dollars.

Next - Mexico: Our new China!

The 12 Steps of Oil Anon

(With a tip o’ the hat to Alcoholics Anonymous)

Here are the steps we took, which are suggested as a program of recovery:


1. We admitted we were powerless over our addiction to oil - that our lives had become unsustainable.

2. Came to believe that a dedication to the facts about peak oil could restore us to sanity.

3. Made a decision to dedicate our will and our lives to the creation of a new and better way of living.

4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of the ways we have become dependent on cheap oil for our livelihood and lifestyle.

5. Admitted to ourselves and to others in the peak oil community that we hadn’t a clue about what to do next, and crashed.

6. Became entirely ready to listen to wisdom from others who have found solutions to fossil-fuel dependency.

7. Humbly asked them to invite us to their homes, meetings and ecovillages.

8. Made a list of our actual real-world options, and became willing to pursue them all.

9. Took direct action to develop a Plan B for our lives, making sure that this plan would involve helping the broader community, so that we would be of service to others.

10. Continued to take inventory of our on-going oil dependency, slowly weaning ourselves off a consumerist lifestyle.

11. Sought through research and connection with others to further improve our peak oil awareness, so that through knowledge and community we can carry out the goals of Relocalization.

12. Having had a mental and spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we sought to offer our knowledge and resources to those who remain unaware, and to practice the principles of sustainable living in all our affairs.

Go to How to Boil a Frog's Peak Oil Page

The Blitz

Ever feel like this?



Does it seem like the news is becoming an all-out assault? If it’s not an actual war story about “6 killed in US air strike”, it’s “Man stabs 8 at mall”. And why are all these people killing numbers? Are they anti-math?



He’s afraid for his life. And not just because he ate Nine.

Then there was the fire sale of teetering Bear Stearns to the JP Morgan Bank . If you’re a US taxpayer, you tried to take comfort in the fact that the bailout postponed the collapse of the US economy for another week or so, until you found out that you paid for the bailout. And the people running Bear Stearns suffered too – many were reduced from billionaires to mere millionaires.



“But it’s more than money. It’s the shame and embarrassment. Now the question is, can you pay for the house and do you give up the second car?” [actual quote]

Meanwhile, oil prices are still over $100 even after the “collapse”, inflation is rising from Singapore to China to Europe to America, the Brits are up to £1.4 trillion in personal debt, the UN admits it’s losing the fight against hunger, Bangalore -- the capital of out-sourcing & stress -- takes the crown as world leader in suicides, and Canadians are feeling worse about balancing the budget with “the most destructive project on earth”.



We’re #1!

And amid this barrage of bad news bombs, the holier-than-thou do-gooders tell us we’re supposed to change our way of life? We’re supposed to drive less? Buy less stuff? Eat organic, locally-grown, non-genetically-modified low-carbon hormone-free-range food?

Are any of these people from Earth?



Al Gore is from the Whirlpool Galaxy. David Suzuki is from the smaller galaxy next door.

Not only that, they say we can do all that stuff and be happy. Right. OK, we believed George about the WMD, but fool me once, shame on…shame on you…fool me can’t get fooled again! [actual video] Just name a time when people were doing all that and felt good about their lives!

Fair enough. Let’s bring in my uncle, esteemed journalist Edward R. Frog.



This…is London.

The Allied Forces are still holding a beachhead of good cheer against pressure from the Axis of Fear. Petrol is a bit limited, so people have parked their cars and started to get their exercise from biking and walking.



Finally, we can take time to enjoy the scenery!

With everyone staying close to home, families have started to spend time together again. Many have been surprised to find they have more children than they remembered, and that they can actually spend time just talking or playing music. Some of these families are getting together with other families, forming something they call “communities”.



Slumber party! (Jacket and tie required.)

The teenagers don’t want to stay in with the old fogies, of course. Fortunately, they’ve rediscovered the joy of dancing to live music – and it’s the best dance music there ever was or will be. Swing!



The most fun you can have without getting pregnant!

There are shortages of course. The ladies are missing their nylons (cleverly replaced with a well-drawn line up the back of a shapely gam), but sugar and meat can be had on the black market if you’ve got something to trade – in a time when money is just paper, real goods, tools and skills are what count. But when it comes to food, most people are turning to their own backyards!



Another hoe for self-sufficiency.

But people are discovering there’s another place they can go for the things they need: their neighbors. Everyone is quick with an offer of the spare room if your house took a hit in the middle of the night, but fashion is also getting served. With no new clothes around, people are finding used treasure in other people’s closets!



We’ll just take in the high heels a little and she’ll be ready for Little Miss Sunshine!

And of course, despite the daily hardships, the uncertainty about the future, the worry about our ability even to get safely home at the end of the day…one thing remains constant: the resilience of the human heart. The more difficult things become, the more we’re reminded that we need each other, and the more we reach out. Together again, present in our towns and villages in a way we haven’t been for years, we happen to glance across the square and see that familiar stranger. And all in a moment…



...romance.



So never forget that there was a time like ours, when life got better even as things got worse, because everyone pitched in and decided to make the best of what there was, and remembered what was important. And as for when this particular Blitz of ours will end, well…

…the future is full of possibilities.

Good night and good luck.